Academy · 14 November 2026 · 11 min

How to Read an Economic Calendar: NFP, CPI and Rates

How to read an economic calendar: what each column means, forecast vs actual, NFP, CPI, Fed and ECB release times, and a worked example of a data surprise.

An economic calendar is a list, ordered by date and time, of the releases that can move currencies, stocks, bonds, gold and crypto: US jobs data (NFP), inflation (CPI), Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate decisions, GDP and PMIs. Knowing how to read an economic calendar tells you when volatility is coming and why.

In this guide you will learn what each column means, which releases move markets most, what time they come out in Spain, how to interpret a surprise with an example and which mistakes to avoid. You can follow every event of the week on our economic calendar, with times already adjusted to your time zone.

What is an economic calendar?

An economic calendar is the public schedule of macroeconomic indicators, speeches and central bank meetings, giving the exact date and time of each release, its expected impact level, the previous reading, the analyst consensus forecast and, once released, the actual figure. Traders and investors use it to anticipate periods of volatility.

The calendar does not publish the data itself: official bodies such as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Eurostat, Spain's INE or the central banks do. The calendar simply gathers them in one place and sorts them by time so that nothing catches you off guard.

How to read an economic calendar: the columns

Almost every calendar uses the same layout. This is what each column means:

The key rule: the surprise matters, not the number

Prices already reflect the forecast before the release. That is why a "good" jobs number can knock the dollar lower if the consensus expected an even better one. What moves the market is the gap between the actual figure and the forecast, and the size of that surprise.

The revision to the previous reading also counts. If last month's jobs figure is revised sharply lower, it can outweigh a current reading that comes in line with expectations.

The releases that move markets most

Non-farm payrolls (NFP)

The US jobs report (Employment Situation) is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), usually on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 New York time (it sometimes shifts to another Friday or another day because of public holidays or government shutdowns). It contains three figures the whole market watches:

• Non-farm payrolls (NFP): jobs created or lost outside the farm sector, taken from the survey of businesses.
• Unemployment rate: taken from a separate survey of households.
• Average hourly earnings: the clue to inflationary pressure coming through wages.

The report also revises the figures for the previous two months. A strong labour market is usually read as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer, and a weak one as a reason to cut.

CPI (inflation)

The consumer price index measures how much the prices of a basket of goods and services rise. In the US the BLS publishes it in the middle of the month at 08:30 New York time; in the euro area, Eurostat publishes a flash estimate of the HICP at the end of the month or early the following month, and in Spain the INE releases a flash CPI at the end of each month.

Watch two versions: headline CPI and core CPI, which strips out food and energy because they are the most volatile components. Central banks pay close attention to core inflation to judge whether price pressures are persistent. Both the Federal Reserve and the ECB target 2% inflation over the medium term (the Fed measures it with the PCE price index, not CPI).

Interest rate decisions

These are the highest-impact events on the calendar. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year; it releases its statement at 14:00 New York time and the Chair's press conference starts half an hour later. The ECB also holds eight monetary policy meetings a year, with the decision at 14:15 Frankfurt time and the press conference at 14:45. The ECB's macroeconomic projections are only published at the March, June, September and December meetings, which tend to be the ones that move markets most.

Here the surprise lies not only in the rate itself (which the market usually anticipates) but in the tone: the projections, the statement and the answers at the press conference about the next steps.

Other important releases

• GDP: economic growth. Published quarterly, with preliminary estimates and later revisions.
• PMI: surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services. Above 50 signals expansion and below 50 contraction. They come out at the start of each month (with a flash reading at the end of the previous one) and point to the trend ahead.
• Retail sales: a gauge of consumer spending, the main engine of the US economy.
• Weekly jobless claims: every Thursday in the US; a quick read on the labour market.

Economic calendar release times in Spain (CET/CEST)

US data released at 08:30 New York time comes out at 14:30 in mainland Spain for most of the year. The exception is a few weeks in March and in late October or early November, when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates: during those periods it comes out at 13:30. The same goes for the Fed: the 14:00 New York statement lands at 20:00 in Spain (19:00 in those weeks).

The mismatch dates always follow the same rule: the US moves its clocks forward on the second Sunday of March and back on the first Sunday of November; the European Union does so on the last Sunday of March and the last Sunday of October. If you trade from the Canary Islands, subtract one hour from all the mainland times in the table.

To line these times up with the open and close of each session (Tokyo, London, New York), check our market hours tool: releases that land during the London–New York overlap tend to trigger the biggest moves.

Context is king: why the same release doesn't always move the market the same way

The impact label is each calendar provider's own estimate, based on past reactions, and it can differ from one calendar to another. What really decides how much the market moves is what the central bank is worried about at the time.

When inflation is far from the 2% target, CPI is the star release and the market reads it to the decimal point. When inflation is under control and the risk is recession, jobs data takes centre stage and a weak NFP matters more than a slightly high CPI. Before each release, ask yourself which variable the Fed or the ECB is watching most closely according to their latest statements: that release will carry the real impact, even if the calendar gives it the same number of icons as the rest.

Which assets usually react to each release

For guidance only: it shows which markets to watch, not which way they will go.

You can see how strength shifts between currencies after each release with our currency strength meter.

Example: how to interpret a CPI release

Suppose you see this release on the calendar (illustrative figures, not from a real month):

Reading it step by step:

1. Surprise: the actual figure beats the forecast by 0.2 percentage points. For core CPI, which tends to move in tenths, that is a big surprise.
2. Interpretation: higher-than-expected inflation lowers the odds of Fed rate cuts.
3. Typical reaction (not a buy or sell signal): bond yields up, a stronger dollar and pressure on equities and gold. It is the most common reaction, not a fixed rule: if the market already feared a reading like this, the move may be smaller or even reverse.
4. Confirmation: check whether headline CPI and the monthly figure tell the same story. If a single component explains the rise, the reaction may unwind over the following hours.

NFP is read the same way: if 150,000 jobs were expected and 250,000 come out, the surprise is to the upside; if the previous months are also revised lower, the two may cancel each other out.

How to use the economic calendar when trading

• Check it every Sunday or Monday: mark the week's high-impact events for the currencies and indices you trade.
• Adjust your position size: around a high-impact release spreads widen because liquidity providers pull their orders, and slippage can occur (your order fills at a worse price than requested). If you hold open positions, recalculate your risk with the position size calculator.
• Look at expected volatility: a pair's average range gives you an idea of what could happen; check it with our volatility tool.
• Check your account rules: some prop firms and brokers restrict trading just before and after high-impact news.
• Don't trade the headline: the first seconds after a release tend to have thin liquidity and erratic moves. Many traders wait for the price to settle.

Trading CFDs and leveraged forex around high-impact news carries a high risk of losing money rapidly. Read our risk warning.

Checklist to prepare your trading week

1. Filter the calendar by the currencies and indices you trade and by high impact.
2. Note the time of each event in your time zone, watching out for the mismatch weeks.
3. Write down the forecast and previous reading, and read what the central bank is worried about now.
4. Decide in advance what you will do with open positions: hold, reduce size or close.
5. Check your broker's or prop firm's rules on trading the news.

Common mistakes when reading an economic calendar

• Only asking whether the number is "good" or "bad". What matters is the comparison with the forecast.
• Ignoring revisions. In the NFP, revisions to the previous two months can change how the report reads.
• Confusing monthly and annual figures. A 0.3% monthly CPI and a 3% annual CPI measure different things.
• Not adjusting the time. The clock-change weeks shift US data by an hour.
• Forgetting speeches. A single sentence from a central bank chief can move markets more than a medium-impact release.

Summary table

Frequently asked questions

What does high impact mean on an economic calendar?

That the release or event tends to cause big moves in the currency or indices affected. It is an estimate based on past reactions: a medium-impact release can also move markets sharply if the surprise is large.

What is NFP and when is it released?

Non-farm payrolls, the number of jobs created in the US outside the farm sector. The BLS usually publishes it on the first Friday of each month at 08:30 New York time, 14:30 in Spain except during the clock-change weeks.

Why do markets fall on good data?

Because the market had already priced in the forecast, or because strong data pushes rate cuts further away. Strong jobs data or hot inflation can weigh on stocks if it suggests rates will stay higher for longer.

What is the difference between headline and core CPI?

Headline includes every price in the basket; core excludes food and energy. Core is more stable and gives a better picture of the underlying inflation trend.

What is the forecast or consensus and who calculates it?

It is the median or the mean, depending on the provider, of the estimates from a group of economists surveyed by news agencies and data providers before each release. That is why it can differ slightly between calendars.

What do hawkish and dovish mean?

Hawkish describes a stance in favour of higher rates to curb inflation; dovish, one in favour of lower rates to support growth and jobs. A central bank's tone can move the market more than the decision itself.

Where can I check the economic calendar?

On our economic calendar, with the week's events, their impact and times in your time zone. The original sources are the official bodies: the BLS, Eurostat, the INE, the Federal Reserve and the ECB.