Academy · 15 November 2026 · 9 min · By Damián Ferrer
Expected Move: How to Calculate It (Nvidia Earnings Example)
Expected move explained: Nvidia options price a 9.7% swing after its 17 November earnings. Learn how to calculate the expected move and avoid risking too much.
In short: the implied move is the move that option prices are anticipating after an event such as an earnings report. For Nvidia, which reports on Tuesday 17 November 2026 after the Wall Street close, options are pricing a move of roughly 9.7% in either direction, double its recent average. Here you will learn how to calculate the implied move and how to use it so you never risk more than you think.
What happened to Nvidia this week
On Thursday 12 November 2026, Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's chief executive with immediate effect. Chief financial officer Colette Kress has taken over on an interim basis. The stock fell as much as 14.3% during the session and closed down 4.3% at $166.19. On Friday 13 November it lost another 2.01% and, according to CNBC, ended the week down 12.75%, its sixth straight weekly decline and its longest losing streak since 2012. We cover the story in detail in Jensen Huang resigns: what it means for Nvidia and its 17 November earnings.
Amid all that noise, fiscal third-quarter results land on Tuesday 17 November after the close. HSBC has downgraded the stock to hold and cut its price target to $170. And the options market, according to the TipRanks calculation cited by Yahoo Finance, is pricing a 9.67% move up or down (measured on Friday 13 November; Benzinga Pro put it at around 9.1%). That number is today's lesson: the implied move.
What is the expected move (implied move) of a stock?
The implied move (also called the expected move) is the size of the price swing that option prices treat as likely after a specific event, usually an earnings report. It is expressed as a percentage or in dollars, in both directions. It does not tell you whether the stock will rise or fall, only how far it is expected to move, and it is neither a ceiling nor a floor: the price can break out of that range.
As a rule of thumb, the range is read as roughly one standard deviation: in theory, the actual move should land inside it about two-thirds of the time, and outside it about a third of the time.
The underlying idea is simple. Anyone selling options ahead of an event charges a premium to compensate for the risk of a big jump. The greater the uncertainty, the more expensive the options and the larger the move priced into them.
Where the number comes from: implied volatility
Every option has an implied volatility (IV), the annualised volatility that its market price reflects. Ahead of earnings, IV on the nearest expiries climbs sharply because those contracts carry the event risk. The day after the release, that premium vanishes almost at once: this is the so-called volatility crush (or IV crush).
How to calculate the expected move: two methods
Method 1: the at-the-money straddle
A straddle means buying a call and a put at the same time with the same strike, the one closest to the current price, and the same expiry (the first one after earnings). Its total cost is what the market charges to bet on a move in either direction. The standard approximation is:
Implied move (%) ≈ straddle price ÷ stock price × 100
A practice example with made-up round numbers: the stock trades at $100, the 100-strike call costs $4.20 and the 100-strike put costs $4.00. The straddle is worth $8.20, so the implied move is about 8.2%, giving an approximate range of $91.80 to $108.20.
Use the first expiry after the event (for Nvidia, the weekly options expiring on Friday 20 November). Because that price also includes some risk from ordinary trading days, the straddle tends to slightly overstate the event move; that is why some traders multiply it by 0.85 as a practical adjustment.
Method 2: from implied volatility
If all you have is the IV, you can use the standard formula, which rests on the idea that volatility grows with the square root of time (the same logic behind the "rule of 16" explained by Charles Schwab):
Expected move ($) ≈ price × IV × √(days to expiry ÷ 365)
Another practice example: a $100 stock, IV of 60% and 3 days to expiry. The square root of 3/365 is 0.0907, so 100 × 0.60 × 0.0907 ≈ $5.44. It is an approximation: it spreads the risk evenly across the days, when in reality almost all of it is concentrated on earnings night. That is why, for a specific event, the straddle method is usually more accurate.
| Method | What you need | Advantage | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATM straddle | Prices of the ATM call and put on the first expiry after the event | Directly reflects the event risk | Depends on the liquidity of those options |
| Implied volatility | IV, price and days to expiry | Quick, works for any time frame | Spreads risk evenly and understates the jump on the key day |
Nvidia's expected move for earnings, in numbers
With Friday 13 November's close at around $162.85 and an implied move of 9.67%, the market treats a swing of about $15.75 in either direction as normal:
- Lower bound: 162.85 − 15.75 = $147.10.
- Upper bound: 162.85 + 15.75 = $178.60.
These figures change daily with the price and IV, and other sources put the move between 9% and 10.6%, depending on when it was measured. What matters is the historical comparison. Over its last four earnings reports, Nvidia moved +8.74%, −1.77%, −5.46% and −3.15% the following day, according to data cited by Yahoo Finance. The average in absolute terms is 4.78%: the market now expects twice the average move of the past year.
| Data point | Value |
|---|---|
| Earnings date | Tuesday 17 November 2026, after the close (from 4pm New York time; 10pm in mainland Spain) |
| Implied move (TipRanks) | ±9.67% |
| Approximate range based on the $162.85 close | $147.10 – $178.60 |
| Average move over the last 4 reports | 4.78% (absolute value) |
| Largest of those 4 moves | +8.74% |
What twice the usual uncertainty tells you
It does not say the stock will fall or rise. It says the market is paying up for protection because there are two sources of risk at once: the quarterly numbers and what the new leadership says about the succession. If the analyst call eases concerns, volatility can deflate quickly; if it adds to them, the move could exceed the range. You will find the background in Nvidia earnings 17 November 2026: what to expect.
Why the implied move matters even if you don't trade options
Even if you never buy an option, this number is one of the best risk-management tools available, because it tells you for free how far the price could jump overnight. And an overnight jump (a gap) does not respect your stop-loss: if the stock opens below your stop, the order is filled at the first available price, not at your level.
Example: the same trade, two position sizes
Say you have a $10,000 account and a rule of risking no more than 1% per trade, i.e. $100. Entry price: $162.85.
- Size based on a normal 5% stop. The stop sits at $154.71, $8.14 away. 100 ÷ 8.14 = 12.28, so you buy 12 shares. Planned risk: 12 × 8.14 = $97.68.
- What happens if you hold through earnings. If the stock opens at the lower bound of the implied range, $147.10, it gaps straight through your stop and you lose $15.75 per share: 12 × 15.75 = $189, almost 1.9% of the account. If the gap were 15% (opening at $138.42), you would lose $24.43 per share: 12 × 24.43 = $293.16, nearly three times what you planned.
- Size based on the implied move. If you use the $15.75 as your minimum risk distance, 100 ÷ 15.75 = 6.35, so you buy 6 shares (a position of about $977). If the gap reaches the edge of the range, you lose 6 × 15.75 = $94.50, within your 1%.
The practical takeaway: ahead of a scheduled event, the real risk of a position is set not by your stop but by the possible gap. You can run these numbers with our position size calculator by entering the implied move as your stop distance instead of your technical stop.
Common mistakes with the implied move
- Treating it as a price target. It does not show where the stock is heading; it is an estimate of size, with no direction.
- Assuming it is the maximum possible move. It is a range the market considers normal, not a limit. Bigger moves do happen, especially when news nobody expected comes out.
- Buying options because "it's going to move a lot". If the actual move falls short of the implied one, the volatility crush can leave you with a loss even if you get the direction right.
- Relying on your stop overnight. With a gap, the stop is filled at the opening price, not the one you set.
- Using stale data. The implied move changes every session until the event; check it on the day.
- Forgetting about leverage. With CFDs, a 10% gap multiplied by leverage can wipe out a large chunk of your account. Read our risk warning.
Pre-earnings checklist
- Confirm the exact date and time of the event and whether it falls before the open or after the close.
- Check the day's implied move (ATM straddle on the first expiry after the event).
- Compare it with the actual moves over the last four to eight reports.
- Work out your loss if the price opens at the opposite edge of the range, and also with a gap 1.5 times larger.
- Adjust your size so that scenario does not exceed your maximum risk per trade.
- Decide beforehand, not afterwards: hold, reduce or close the position before the event.
- If you trade with leverage or CFDs, check your free margin so the gap does not trigger a margin call.
Frequently asked questions
Is the implied move accurate?
Sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't. It is the market's estimate at that moment, not a guaranteed forecast. Over Nvidia's last four earnings reports, only one (+8.74%) came close to the size being priced in now; the rest fell well short.
Where can I find a stock's implied move?
Many options platforms and data sites calculate it, such as TipRanks or brokers' options chains. You can also work it out yourself: add the prices of the call and put with the strike closest to the current price and divide by the stock price.
What is the difference between implied volatility and the implied move?
Implied volatility is an annualised percentage derived from each option's price. The implied move turns that volatility into a concrete swing, in dollars or as a percentage, for a given time frame or event. One is the raw material; the other is the practical result.
What is a volatility crush (IV crush)?
It is the sharp drop in implied volatility right after the event. Options lose value even if the stock moves, because the uncertainty traders were paying for disappears. That is why buying options before earnings does not guarantee a profit even if the price moves.
Does it work for forex, indices or crypto?
Yes, although in forex and crypto the options available to retail traders tend to be less liquid, and the figure is taken from markets such as CME or Deribit. The same concept applies to any asset with liquid options and to events such as central bank meetings or jobs data. The bigger the event, the more implied volatility rises on the expiry that includes it.
When does Nvidia report, and at what time?
On Tuesday 17 November 2026, after the Wall Street close at 4pm New York time, which is 10pm in mainland Spain. The main reaction will come in the Wednesday 18 November session.