Cryptocurrencies · 15 November 2026 · 10 min · By Mateo Quintanar
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Key Supports After the $62,000 Low
How low can bitcoin go? BTC hit $62,006 on 15 November 2026 and slipped below its 200-week average. Key supports, past drawdowns and what to watch.
In short: bitcoin hit $62,006 in the early hours of Sunday 15 November 2026 and is bouncing towards $65,600, but it is trading below its 200-week moving average ($67,760) ahead of the weekly close. The supports the market is watching are $62,000, the $60,000 level that halted February's sell-off and the year's low of $57,800. Nobody can pin down bitcoin's bottom: what you can measure are the levels, the drawdowns of previous cycles and the signals that would confirm a turn.
How low can bitcoin go? Nobody knows for certain, but the map is clear: after losing $70,000 on Friday, the price fell to $62,006 on Binance ($61,946 on Coinbase) between 2:00 and 3:00 CET on Sunday 15 November 2026, rebounded almost 6% over the next two hours and at 10:30 CET is trading around $65,600. The floors the market is now watching are $62,000, $60,000 and $57,800.
This analysis does not rehash why the sell-off started, which we already covered in why is bitcoin down today. Here we focus on what is new this weekend: the break below the 200-week moving average, the Fear & Greed Index at 10 and what has happened on previous occasions with a reading that low. All prices are for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance unless another source is given; lows differ by a few dollars from exchange to exchange.
Bitcoin price today: where it stands and how far it has fallen
The week opened on Monday 9 November at $74,851. At the current price, bitcoin is down around 12% in seven days and close to 48% below its all-time high of $126,080, set on 6 October 2025 according to CoinGecko.
The run of daily closes shows a step-by-step decline rather than a single day of panic: $74,015 on Wednesday 11, $71,460 on Thursday 12, $68,314 on Friday 13 and $64,150 on Saturday 14. Ether is following the same path at around $1,830, down 3.7% in 24 hours according to CoinGecko.
What is the 200-week moving average and why losing it matters
The 200-week moving average is bitcoin's average closing price over the past four years, roughly one full cycle between halvings. Many analysts use it as a long-term value benchmark, because in previous bear markets the price passed through that zone close to the bottoms. Based on our own calculation from the last 200 weekly closes on Binance, it currently stands at $67,760.
On Saturday bitcoin closed below that average ($64,150) and on Sunday it is trading around $2,000 beneath it. Something similar happened earlier this year: the price posted weekly closes below the line in the weeks of 22 June and 10 August 2026, hit its annual low of $57,800 on Binance on 1 July ($57,718 on other platforms) and on both occasions reclaimed it the following week.
What matters is the weekly close, at 00:00 UTC on Monday (1:00 CET). A close above $67,760 would turn the break into a weekend scare. A close below would turn the average into resistance that the price would have to win back.
The 2022 precedent: the average was not the bottom
The 200-week moving average should not be treated as an automatic floor. In 2022, based on Binance weekly closes, bitcoin first closed below it in the week of 13 June ($20,574 against roughly $22,350), briefly reclaimed it in late July and lost it again in mid-August. It did not win it back until the week of 13 March 2023, almost seven months later. In the meantime, the bottom came on 21 November 2022 at $15,476, about 36% below the average at the time.
Bitcoin support and resistance levels to watch
These are the levels drawing the most orders and attention this week. They are not forecasts: they are prices where bitcoin has reacted before, moving averages followed by most traders, or on-chain cost bases. The moving averages are calculated using the 14 November close and the distances against a price of $65,600 (10:30 CET). The two on-chain levels come from Glassnode's weekly report The Week On-chain of 4 November, as reported by CryptoTicker.
| Level | Type | Distance | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| $80,225 | Resistance | +22.3% | 50-day moving average |
| $77,700 | Resistance | +18.4% | True Market Mean: average cost basis of active investors (Glassnode, 4 November) |
| $75,700 | Resistance | +15.4% | Short-term holder cost basis (Glassnode, 4 November) |
| $74,851 | Resistance | +14.1% | Weekly open (9 November) |
| $73,031 | Resistance | +11.3% | 200-day moving average, lost on 12 November |
| $67,760 | Resistance | +3.3% | 200-week moving average: the benchmark for the weekly close |
| $62,006 | Support | -5.5% | 15 November low on Binance ($61,946 on Coinbase) |
| $60,000 | Support | -8.5% | Round number and exact Binance low of 5-6 February 2026 |
| $57,800 | Support | -11.9% | 2026 low on Binance, set on 1 July |
Note that bitcoin is trading below all three of its main moving averages (50-day, 200-day and 200-week) and also below the average price paid by those who bought in the last five months. That describes a downtrend across every timeframe, with many recent buyers sitting on losses who could sell if the price climbs back to their entry level.
What if bitcoin loses $57,800? What past bear-market drawdowns show
Below the July low, the 2026 chart offers no further price references. The only guide is history: how far bitcoin fell from its peak in each previous bear market. Applying those percentages to the $126,080 high is simple arithmetic, not a forecast. Historical drawdowns are approximate and shift by a point either way depending on whether daily closes or intraday extremes are used.
| Cycle | Drawdown from peak | Equivalent price from $126,080 |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-2015 | ≈ -86% | ≈ $17,650 |
| 2017-2018 | ≈ -84% | ≈ $20,170 |
| 2021-2022 | ≈ -77% | ≈ $29,000 |
| 2025-2026 (so far) | -54.2% at the July low; -48% now | $57,800 / $65,600 |
There are two ways to read this. The bearish one: if this cycle repeated earlier drawdowns, there would still be a long way to fall. The more nuanced one: each cycle has fallen less than the previous one, and there are now spot ETFs, companies holding bitcoin reserves and a regulated derivatives market that did not exist in 2014 or 2018. Neither reading lets you set a price, but both explain why the market is watching $57,800 so closely.
What does a Fear & Greed Index reading of 10 mean?
The Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index stands at 10 this Sunday, in "extreme fear". It has plunged: 28 on Thursday, 20 on Friday, 13 on Saturday and 10 today, according to the index's daily series. It is the lowest reading since 10 June 2026, when it registered 9 (the low of that episode was 8, on 8 June).
It is often said that extreme fear marks bottoms. We tested that against the data: we took every time the index dropped to 10 or below since January 2025 and measured bitcoin's daily close 30 and 90 days later. To avoid counting the same episode twice, we only used the first reading after at least 14 days without values of 10 or lower.
| Date | Index | Bitcoin price | 30 days later | 90 days later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2025 | 10 | $84,709 | -2.4% | +27.2% |
| 15/11/2025 | 10 | $95,596 | -9.6% | -28.0% |
| 06/02/2026 | 9 | $70,580 | -6.5% | +13.4% |
| 08/06/2026 | 8 | $63,086 | -1.3% | +27.4% |
| 15/11/2026 | 10 | $65,591 | — | — |
The conclusion is less comforting than it looks. In all four previous cases bitcoin was lower 30 days later, so extreme fear did not mark the exact bottom. Over 90 days, three of the four episodes ended higher, but exactly a year ago, on 15 November 2025, the same reading of 10 came before another 28% drop. With only four cases, none of these results is statistically reliable.
Why is bitcoin falling? The forces behind the drop
Outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs
According to Farside Investors data, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded seven straight sessions of net outflows up to Friday 13, totalling around $1.907 billion. In the week of 9 to 13 November alone, $1.065 billion left the funds, after another $1.282 billion the week before. BlackRock's IBIT saw redemptions in all ten November sessions.
Miners selling their reserves
MARA Holdings, one of the largest listed miners, told the SEC in its third-quarter shareholder letter that it sold 13,597 bitcoin after 30 September at an average price of about $81,039, for close to $1.1 billion. It used about $750 million to repay bitcoin-backed loans. When a company with large reserves sells to fund its pivot towards AI data centres, the market reads it as additional supply.
A Fed that is raising rates
The Federal Reserve meets on 8 and 9 December with a rate hike all but priced in, as we explained in our Fed outlook for December: after the October CPI, the CME FedWatch tool put an 85% probability on a 25-basis-point hike. Higher rates make money more expensive and hit the riskiest assets, and bitcoin is among the first to feel it.
Cascading liquidations
The fall accelerated as leveraged positions were forcibly closed: more than $1.2 billion was liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours on Saturday, according to CoinGlass data, the vast majority of it long positions. If you trade with leverage, make sure you know how to work out your liquidation price before opening a trade.
Bitcoin scenarios for the coming weeks
Without setting price targets, these are the three paths outlined by the current levels and data:
- Technical recovery: the weekly close moves back above $67,760 and the ETFs stop recording outflows. In that case, the next references would be the 200-day moving average ($73,031) and the weekly open ($74,851).
- Sideways range: the price moves between $60,000 and the 200-week average while the market waits for the Fed on 9 December. In the summer, by contrast, the average was reclaimed within a week: a prolonged range would be a departure from this year's pattern and closer to what happened in 2022.
- Further downside: a clear break of $60,000 with fresh ETF outflows. The next relevant support would be the year's low of $57,800; below that, only the historical cycle drawdowns in the table above remain as references.
What to watch this week
- Weekly close on Monday 16 at 1:00 CET (00:00 UTC on Binance): above or below $67,760.
- ETF flows for Monday, published after the Wall Street close: a net inflow would end the seven-day streak of outflows.
- Fear & Greed Index: if it climbs back above 25 while the price holds, it would suggest that selling pressure is fading.
- Further sales by miners and companies holding bitcoin reserves.
- Fed messaging ahead of its 8-9 December meeting.
Risks of trading bitcoin in this volatility
In the early hours of Sunday, bitcoin went from $62,006 to $65,596 in about two hours, almost 6%. With a range like that, 10x leverage can wipe out a position in minutes. CFDs and crypto derivatives magnify both gains and losses, and liquidity is thinner at weekends. Before trading, work out your position size and read our risk warning. This analysis is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Frequently asked questions
How low can bitcoin go?
There is no guaranteed floor. The most closely watched supports are $62,000 (the 15 November low), $60,000 (the February 2026 low) and $57,800 (the year's low, from 1 July), based on Binance data. Below that, the drawdowns of previous cycles (77% to 86% from the peak) are only a historical reference, not a forecast.
Where is bitcoin's bottom?
It is only known in hindsight. The signals that usually accompany a bottom are a weekly close back above the 200-week moving average, net inflows into the ETFs and a Fear & Greed Index that recovers while the price stops making new lows.
Why is bitcoin falling this weekend?
Because of a combination of ETF outflows (seven straight sessions), sales by miners such as MARA, expectations of a Fed rate hike in December and more than $1.2 billion in liquidations across the crypto market in 24 hours.
What does it mean when bitcoin loses its 200-week moving average?
It means the price is trading below its average cost over the past four years, around $67,760. It has been a bottoming zone in some cycles, but in 2022 bitcoin spent almost seven months below it and bottomed 36% lower, while in 2026 it posted two weekly closes below it and quickly won it back. Confirmation comes with the weekly close.
Is extreme fear a buy signal?
Not on its own. In the four episodes with the index at 10 or below since 2025, bitcoin was trading lower 30 days later. Over 90 days there were three gains and one 28% fall, so it does not work as a reliable entry signal.