Calculate how much your system makes or loses per trade on average, and its profit factor, from your win rate, average win and average loss.
For information only. Not financial advice. Always check your broker's conditions before trading.
How it works
Expectancy is what your system makes or loses per trade on average. If it is positive, the system makes money in the long run; if it is negative, it loses, however high the win rate.
Profit factor divides gross profit by gross loss: above 1 the system is profitable; above 1.5 it is usually considered solid.
How it is calculated
Expectancy = win rate × average win − (1 − win rate) × average loss
Expectancy in R = expectancy ÷ average loss
Profit factor = (win rate × average win) ÷ ((1 − win rate) × average loss)
FAQ
How many trades do I need for a reliable result?
The more, the better. With fewer than 50–100 trades the statistics are unreliable; data from an audited account gives the most honest result.
Does a 70% win rate guarantee profits?
No. If the average loss is much larger than the average win, expectancy can be negative even with a high win rate.
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