Commodities · 14 November 2026 · 7 min

Why Is Gold Down Today? 30% Below Record on Fed Hike Bets

Why is gold down today? Gold fell close to 4.5% this week and hit $3,852, its lowest of the year, as markets bet on a December Fed rate hike. Key data, dates.

If you are asking why gold is down today, the short answer is this: on Friday 13 November 2026 spot gold was trading around $3,879 an ounce, having started the week near $4,085. A hotter-than-expected US October CPI reading (+0.4% month on month against +0.3% forecast) fuelled bets that the Fed will raise rates again, and that weighs on an asset that pays no interest.

Why is gold down today?

Gold is falling because markets are pricing in close to a 90% chance (as of 13 November) of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher rates make holding gold, which yields nothing, more expensive, and they strengthen the dollar.

The week delivered two blows. On Tuesday 10 November the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October CPI: prices rose 0.4% on the month, above the 0.3% expected, and core inflation rose 0.3%, also 0.1 percentage point above forecasts. The BLS has not published an annual rate for October because the October 2025 data are missing, lost to the government shutdown. The same day, Governor Christopher Waller went further: according to FXStreet, he said that hiking by only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk, opening the door to a 50-basis-point move. December gold futures went from Monday's high of $4,157.70 to around $4,033, roughly 3% lower (FXStreet).

The second blow came on Thursday 12 November, with more Fed officials backing further hikes, and gold fell again by around 3%, to a low of $3,852. After those comments, FedWatch put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December at around 90% and of a 50-basis-point hike at close to 10% (FXStreet).

The key numbers this week

Our calculation: from about $5,595 to about $3,879, gold is down 30.7% from its 29 January record.

What is driving gold prices lower

1. The Fed has shifted from cutting to hiking

This is the underlying change. For much of 2025 markets expected rate cuts, and gold rallied hard. Now inflation has picked up again and several Fed officials are talking openly about hikes: Waller, as noted above, and Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), who according to FXStreet warned that worsening inflation data would make the Fed "more aggressive".

2. A strong dollar

With the Dollar Index at a 19-month high, gold becomes more expensive for buyers paying in other currencies, and demand cools. If you follow gold in euros, remember that XAU/EUR can behave differently from XAU/USD; you can track how currencies are moving with our currency strength meter.

3. Rising yields

With the 10-year Treasury yielding around 5.15%, bonds look more attractive than a metal that pays no coupon.

What about the silver price?

Silver also ended the week lower: it is hovering around $50 an ounce after starting the week above $52 (HDFC Sky). On top of the rates effect, silver depends heavily on industry, and some forecasts cited by HDFC Sky point to a fall in photovoltaic demand for silver in 2026. Platinum and palladium are also heading for weekly losses.

Gold technical levels the market is watching

These are not predictions, just the zones analysts cite as reference points:

• Support (according to FXStreet): Thursday's low of $3,852 and the psychological $3,800 level. Below that, FXStreet points to $3,500.
• Resistance: $3,900, $4,000 and $4,100.
• Moving averages: the 50-day is around $4,154 and the 100-day near $4,196: both above the price.

Work out your own levels with our pivot point calculator.

Our analysis: two blows and a 30% fall in context

Splitting the week into its two blows helps show what is weighing most on gold right now:

The takeaway: no huge surprise was needed. Inflation just 0.1 percentage point above forecast was enough to move gold by 3%, because the market was already heavily positioned. That suggests the metal is now highly sensitive to every data release and every Fed speech.

Is a 30.7% fall from the record a big one? For comparison: after its September 2011 peak near $1,920, gold took more than four years to fall around 45%, to the $1,050 area at the end of 2015, also against a backdrop of Fed rate hikes. This time it has covered two thirds of that decline in less than ten months: the adjustment is happening much faster, which tends to bring more volatility in both directions.

How to check for yourself why gold is moving

Three indicators explain almost everything.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): when it rises sharply, gold usually suffers.
• US 10-year Treasury yield: above 5%, gold faces stiffer competition.
• CME FedWatch: shows in real time the probability the market assigns to each Fed decision.

When all three are working against gold at the same time, as they are now, it is hard for the metal to rally strongly. You can see how gold relates to other assets with our correlation tool.

Gold price scenarios for the coming weeks

1. Further downside: if data keep showing high inflation and the Fed confirms the hike while signalling more to come, the dollar and yields could keep rising and put pressure on the support levels above.
2. Technical rebound: after a fall of close to 4.5% in a week, it is common for some sellers to take profits. A softer inflation print or a less hawkish Fed message would favour this scenario.
3. Risk-off turn: a financial scare or a sharp geopolitical escalation could restore gold's safe-haven role, although this week showed that rates matter more right now.

Our view: gold has gone from pricing cuts to pricing hikes, and that kind of regime change usually takes time. As long as the market does not doubt the December hike, rebounds tend to be more fragile.

What to watch: the calendar ahead

• Wednesday 18 November, 2pm ET: minutes of the 27-28 October FOMC meeting (Federal Reserve). They will offer clues on how many hikes Fed officials have in mind.
• Speeches by Fed officials, especially voting members.
• 8-9 December: Fed meeting, the key decision for gold. November CPI is released on 10 December, the day after.
• The dollar and the 10-year yield: if the 10-year clearly breaks above 5.15%, pressure on gold could continue.

You will find every date and time in our economic calendar.

Risks if you trade gold now

Gold volatility is well above normal: a 3% move in a day is more than $100 an ounce. If you trade leveraged CFDs or futures, a move like that can close your position or multiply your losses. Before you enter, size your trade with our position size calculator and read our risk warning.

Frequently asked questions

Why has gold fallen so much this week?

Because markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its 8-9 December meeting after an October CPI reading of +0.4%, above forecasts, which has pushed the dollar to a 19-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.

What is the gold price today?

On Friday 13 November 2026 spot gold was trading around $3,879 an ounce, after touching $3,852 on Thursday. Always check a live quote, because the price changes by the second.

How far is gold from its all-time high?

A long way. The spot record is around $5,595 an ounce, set on 29 January 2026; the exact figure varies slightly by source (Kitco). With gold around $3,879, the fall is 30.7%.

Will gold keep falling?

Nobody knows. It depends mainly on the Fed's 8-9 December meeting and on inflation data: more pressure from rates favours further falls, while a softer print or a less hawkish message favours a rebound. Review the three scenarios in this article rather than relying on a forecast.