News · 14 November 2026 · 6 min · By Camila Restrepo Osorio
10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.15%: Why It's Rising
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15% on 13 November, its biggest weekly rise since April 2025. Why yields are rising, who is affected and key dates.
In short: the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.15% on Friday 13 November 2026, 29 basis points higher than a week earlier and its biggest weekly rise since April 2025, according to official Treasury data. The driver is October inflation, which has left a Federal Reserve rate hike on 9 December almost fully priced in.
What is the 10-year Treasury yield today?
The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week, on Friday 13 November 2026, at 5.15%, up from 4.86% on Friday 6 November. That is 29 basis points in four sessions (the bond market was closed on Wednesday 11 November for Veterans Day). It is the largest Friday-to-Friday rise since the week ending 11 April 2025.
Before you panic: this is not a high for the year. According to the official Treasury yield curve, the 2026 peak was 5.31% on 5 October. What matters is the speed of the rebound, and the fact that the 10-year is settling back above 5% after dipping to 4.84% on 5 November.
What happened to the Treasury yield curve this week
The move was not confined to the 10-year. The whole curve shifted higher, and the short end, the part most sensitive to the Fed, rose the most:
| Maturity | 6 Nov 2026 | 13 Nov 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-month bill | 4.19% | 4.32% | +13 bp |
| 2-year note | 4.51% | 4.88% | +37 bp |
| 10-year note | 4.86% | 5.15% | +29 bp |
| 30-year bond | 5.26% | 5.47% | +21 bp |
Source: daily par yield curve rates from the US Department of the Treasury.
The 2-year rising more than the 10-year sends a clear message: the market is not mainly punishing long-term debt or growth, it is pricing in near-term rate hikes. The 2s10s spread narrowed from 35 to 27 basis points in a week, the classic pattern when traders expect a more hawkish central bank. Another detail from the official curve: the 20-year (5.52%) yields more than the 30-year (5.47%), a small hump showing that investors are demanding an extra premium in that part of the curve.
Why are Treasury yields rising? October inflation
The trigger came on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 am New York time, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released October CPI: +0.4% month on month for the headline index and +0.3% for core (excluding food and energy), the same pace as in August and September. Shelter rose 0.3% and energy 0.7%.
A detail many people miss: there is no official year-on-year rate this month. The BLS did not collect prices in October 2025 because of the government shutdown, so it cannot calculate the 12-month change. That is why you will see different estimates depending on the source; none of them is the official figure.
The Waller line that moved the market
On the same day as the CPI release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller set the bar in a speech in London. He said that if October improved as he expected, he was leaning towards a 25 basis point hike in December, and that if core inflation came in around 0.3% or higher, something more forceful should be considered:
"I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting" (Christopher Waller, 10 November 2026).
Core CPI came in at exactly 0.3%. In other words, the data met the very condition Waller himself had set for debating a half-point hike.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
The market sees it as all but certain. According to CME's FedWatch tool, as cited on CNBC's live markets page (updated on 13 November), futures on 13 November priced close to a 100% probability of a hike on 9 December: around 87% for 25 basis points and 13% for 50. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.75%-4%, a 25 bp hike would take it to 4%-4.25%.
For the full analysis of the 25 versus 50 basis point scenarios, read our article on the Fed rate hike in December 2026.
What a 5% Treasury yield means for stocks, the dollar and gold
The 10-year is the world's benchmark rate: it is used to discount companies' future earnings, it sets US mortgage rates and it is the yardstick for every other investment. A 5.15% yield shifts the balance:
- Stocks: an asset with no credit risk paying more than 5% competes with equities, especially tech stocks, whose value depends on distant earnings. On Friday 13 November the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the S&P 500 0.4%, although Nvidia was the main drag after Jensen Huang's resignation.
- Dollar: higher US rates tend to support the dollar against the euro and the yen. With the yen weak against the dollar, the risk of intervention by Japan is back on the table.
- Gold: it pays no interest, so it loses appeal when bonds yield more. It is one of the reasons we cover in why gold is down.
To put it in perspective: a year ago, on 13 November 2025, the 10-year stood at 4.11%. It has risen 104 basis points in twelve months and now sits 115 basis points above the current upper bound of the fed funds target range.
What it means for traders and investors
Beyond the headline, there are three practical consequences:
- More volatility around every data release. With the Fed focused on CPI, any surprise moves bonds, the dollar and indices at the same time. Check the economic calendar before opening positions and reduce your position size if you trade around release times.
- Stronger correlations. When bonds are in charge, the Nasdaq, gold and EUR/USD tend to move together in response to rates. If several of your positions are exposed to the same factor, you really have one big bet; check it with the correlation tool.
- The cost of holding positions changes. Overnight swaps on dollar pairs depend on the interest rate differential and adjust when expectations about the Fed shift.
Trading bonds, indices or currencies with CFDs or leverage can make you lose money faster than you expect in weeks like this. Read our risk warning and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
What to watch next and when
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Coming days | Speeches by Fed officials | If nobody pushes back on a 50 bp hike, the 2-year could stay under pressure |
| Tuesday 17 November | Nvidia earnings (after the close) | They could matter more than bonds for the Nasdaq in the short term |
| 8-9 December | Fed meeting (decision on the 9th) | Size of the hike and the message on 2027 |
| Thursday 10 December, 8:30 am New York | November CPI | Will confirm whether core is still running at 0.3% a month |
The technical level traders watch most is 5% itself: as long as the 10-year holds above it, the market will keep pricing in a hawkish Fed. The next one is the year's high, 5.31% on 5 October. A close above it would open up territory with no recent reference points; a drop back below 5% would be the first sign of relief.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean when the 10-year Treasury yield rises?
It means its price is falling and investors are demanding a higher return for lending to the US government for 10 years. It usually reflects higher expected inflation, higher Fed rates or more debt supply. This week the main driver has been inflation.
Is 5.15% the high for the year?
No. According to the Treasury, the highest close of 2026 was 5.31% on 5 October. What is exceptional this week is the speed: 29 basis points, the biggest weekly rise since April 2025.
Does it affect mortgages in Spain?
Not directly. Spanish variable-rate mortgages track Euribor, which depends on the European Central Bank. But a strong dollar and high US rates can influence European bonds. You can find this month's figure in Euribor in November 2026.
Why is there no year-on-year US inflation figure for October?
Because the BLS did not collect prices in October 2025 due to the lapse in federal government funding, so there is no base to compare them with. Only the official monthly change exists: +0.4% headline and +0.3% core.
When does the Fed decide?
The meeting is on 8 and 9 December 2026, with the decision on Wednesday 9 December. Futures are pricing in a hike with near certainty, with 25 basis points as the main scenario.