News · 14 November 2026 · 6 min
Oil prices: Trump says no Iran deal needed, Hormuz in focus
Trump says the US doesn't need an Iran deal and keeps the blockade. Brent bounces to $95 but heads for a second weekly loss. What to watch next.
In short: Donald Trump wrote on Thursday 12 November 2026 that the US doesn't need a deal with Iran and that it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped 3.3% to $95.82 that day, but on Friday 13 November it was back at $95.41, down 2.4% on the week, its second weekly loss in a row. The market reads this as Washington sticking with the blockade and sanctions rather than resuming strikes.
US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday 12 November 2026 that a deal with Iran is not needed to end the war and that Washington has "their Strait", referring to Hormuz. Oil prices reacted sharply: Brent settled at $95.82 a barrel (+3.3%) and WTI at $88.74 (+2.6%), according to CNBC.
The bounce did not change the trend. In Asian trading on Friday 13 November, Brent stood at $95.41 and WTI at $88.52, with weekly losses of 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, according to Reuters. It is a second straight weekly decline, following the previous week's slump, when Brent fell 16% and WTI 13%.
What did Trump say about an Iran deal?
Trump wrote that the US doesn't need a deal with Iran because "those days have long since passed" and boasted of controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts see it as a sign that the White House will keep the blockade on Iranian crude exports and the sanctions in place, without returning to military action for now.
The post followed several days of softer rhetoric. On 9 November Trump said fresh strikes were highly unlikely while talks progressed, and on 10 November he added that further military action did not seem necessary at that point, according to CNBC's timeline. That shift was what sent crude tumbling earlier in the month.
What each side wants
According to analyst Andy Lipow, quoted by CNBC:
| Side | Main demands |
|---|---|
| Iran | An end to the economic blockade, sanctions relief and a ceasefire that includes Lebanon |
| United States | Iran to hand over its entire nuclear arsenal, and free passage through Hormuz |
The two sides remain far apart. So the market is not pricing in an imminent deal, but nor is it pricing in fresh escalation: the base case is now a prolonged blockade.
Timeline: from war to blockade
To make sense of November, it helps to recall the year so far. These are the milestones according to Wikipedia's summary of the crisis, unless another source is given:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Late March | Brent hits its peak of the conflict, around $118 |
| 8 April | A ceasefire is announced |
| 14 June | Trump announces a deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz (Forbes México) |
| 1 July | Brent drops to around $70 |
| Late July | Brent climbs back above $100 |
| November | Signs of de-escalation send crude sliding; on the 12th Trump says the US doesn't need a deal |
If you are searching for the June deal, this is the key point: that agreement never took hold, and in November the US blockade remains in force, according to Reuters.
Why do oil prices swing so much on Iran news?
The price of crude includes a geopolitical risk premium: the extra the market pays for fear of a supply disruption. In normal times, around a fifth of global oil consumption passes through Hormuz, according to the EIA, so every headline about the strait can move Brent by several dollars within hours.
This week two forces pulled in opposite directions:
- Pushing prices up: according to Iran's military, four oil tankers were hit by explosions in the strait on Thursday after ignoring its warnings, a claim Reuters could not verify, according to The National. Reuters also cites Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
- Pushing prices down: the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday that crude and fuel inventories rose (crude by 4.7 million barrels when a draw had been expected, according to Reuters), driven by weaker demand for refined products and a jump in imports. Reuters also points to signs of a global supply surplus.
The net result is a highly volatile market with a bearish bias: Brent is down close to 20% in November, according to CNBC, although it remains well above its levels at the start of the year.
Market reaction
Thursday's bounce was pure risk premium: supply and demand did not change, only the perceived odds of a longer conflict. On Friday, with the inventory data digested, crude opened almost flat and gave back part of the gain.
For Europe and Spain, the main channel is imported energy. Brent at around $95 is still pushing up fuel and industrial costs compared with the start of the year, and keeps pressure on eurozone inflation. You can track that relationship with our asset correlation tool.
What it means for traders and investors
Our take: the market has gone from pricing in peace to pricing in a long blockade without open war. Within that scenario there are three possible paths:
- Stable blockade, no incidents: the risk premium gradually deflates and inventories and the supply surplus carry more weight.
- New attacks in Hormuz: sudden jumps of several dollars in a single session, like Thursday's, with no warning.
- Return to the negotiating table: another drop in the premium, similar to the first week of November.
With headlines able to move crude by more than 3% in a day, position size matters more than direction. If you trade oil through CFDs or futures, leverage magnifies losses just as much as gains; work out how much you are risking first with the position size calculator and read our risk warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
What to watch next week
- Statements from Trump and Tehran: any sign of talks resuming or of new military action.
- Incidents in Hormuz: attacks on tankers or on Gulf infrastructure.
- Weekly EIA inventories: usually released on Wednesdays, they will confirm or contradict the surplus.
- Inflation and central banks: energy prices shape the Fed's and the ECB's next moves. Check the dates in the economic calendar.
Frequently asked questions
Has Trump said there will be no deal with Iran?
He has said the US doesn't need a deal to end the war, not that he rules one out. The market reads it as a continuation of the blockade and sanctions.
What is the Brent oil price today?
Brent settled at $95.82 on Thursday 12 November and was trading at $95.41 on Friday 13 November, down 2.4% on the week, according to Reuters.
What happened to the June deal with Iran?
Trump announced a deal to reopen Hormuz on 14 June, but it never took hold: Brent climbed back above $100 in late July and in November the US blockade is still in place.
Is the US blockade of Iran still in place?
Yes. According to Reuters, Trump is keeping the blockade on Iranian crude exports and relying on sanctions rather than new strikes.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
It is the Persian Gulf's outlet to the open sea, and in normal times close to 20% of the oil consumed worldwide passes through it. Any threat to shipping raises oil's risk premium.
How does it affect Spain?
Spain produces very little oil and relies almost entirely on imports, so expensive crude pushes up fuel prices, transport costs and inflation. Recent falls offer some relief, but prices remain high compared with the start of the year.