Forex · 15 November 2026 · 10 min · By Nerea Ibarguren

EUR/USD Today: Euro Falls to 1.10, a 19-Month Low

EUR/USD today: the euro falls to 1.10, a 19-month low, as hot US CPI fuels Fed hike bets. Key levels, scenarios and the 16–20 November calendar.

EUR/USD today is trading around 1.10. The European Central Bank's euro reference rate, published at around 16:00 CET on Friday 13 November, was $1.1052 per euro, and the pair ended the week near 1.1022 according to NordFX. That is the euro's lowest level against the dollar since April 2025: the May 2025 low was around 1.1065 and the pair now sits below it. The currency market is closed on Sunday 15 November, so the rate will not move again until Monday's Asian open.

Why is the euro falling against the dollar?

The euro is falling against the dollar because markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than the ECB. US consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month in October (0.3% was expected), and core CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% was expected), its third straight 0.3% monthly print, according to TradingNEWS. That sent US Treasury yields sharply higher and is pulling capital into the dollar.

The sequence was clear: after Tuesday's CPI release, the US 2-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points to 4.74% (according to TradingNEWS), and the euro posted four losing sessions in a row. Not even a softer-than-expected PPI reading on Friday (0.3% month on month versus 0.4% expected) could halt the slide.

Monday-to-Thursday closes from TradingNEWS; Friday's close from NordFX (data providers differ by a few pips).

In total, the pair fell more than 200 pips from Tuesday's high, with four consecutive sessions in the red. According to MUFG, the US Dollar Index (DXY) broke above 103 for the first time since April 2025, and MUFG noted that the dollar was the best-performing G10 currency of the week.

What Fed officials said

Governor Christopher Waller said a 50 basis point hike in December should be considered if core inflation does not ease. As reported by TradingNEWS, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee admitted that progress on inflation has stalled lately, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said price pressures are rising, not falling. We have already broken down the options for that meeting in Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026? 25 or 50 bp.

Fed vs ECB: the race to raise rates

Both sides of the Atlantic are raising rates in 2026, but markets believe the Fed will move faster. That is what is weighing on EUR/USD: not who is hiking, but who hikes more and sooner.

The gap between US and German 10-year yields is around 190 basis points, according to TradingNEWS. With a spread that wide, investors are better rewarded for holding dollars than euros, and that flow is what drives the exchange rate. But it is the short end that moves currencies most: the Fed sits at 3.75–4.00% (a 3.875% midpoint) and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, a gap of roughly 140 basis points that markets expect to hold or widen if the Fed also hikes in January. The 2-year yield reflects those rate expectations almost instantly, which is why its jump after the CPI data triggered the euro's slide. For the full picture on bonds, see our explainer on why the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.15%.

The euro area's extra problem: energy-driven inflation and weak growth

The ECB is hiking into a weaker economy. Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter (Eurostat), but France contracted (−0.1%), Italy was flat and Germany grew 0.2%; Spain, at 0.6%, is among the strongest contributors. Headline inflation is at 4%, but core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) is only 2.5%: the pressure is coming mainly from energy, according to data compiled by TradingNEWS. Higher rates do not make oil cheaper, but they do slow an economy that is barely growing. That is why markets doubt Frankfurt can keep pace with Washington.

Key EUR/USD levels analysts are watching

These are the technical levels cited in reports published on 13 and 14 November. They are not our forecast, not advice and not a trading signal: they simply show where the market may react.

Note that the euro has already lost around 690 pips from its August high (1.1711, according to TradingNEWS) to Friday's 1.1022 close, and it is 8.7% below this year's high of 1.2067. This week alone, the high-to-low range topped 230 pips (1.1252 to 1.1020), well above what a quiet week looks like. Our take: the euro is giving back a large part of the rally that began in January 2025 from 1.0177. That is why the 1.1122–1.1131 zone (the exact halfway point of that move, 1.1122, and the 200-week moving average that TradingNEWS puts at 1.1130) was the first line of defence, and it has already gone. The next reference, 1.0950, is the area the euro broke out from in April 2025, just before its big advance. If the market holds it, the drop would fit as a correction within a broad range; if it breaks on daily closes, the euro would have given back about 59% of the entire move from 1.0177 to 1.2067 (it has already retraced more than half), and that tends to shift positioning among large funds. After such a long run of losses, sharp rebounds in either direction are also common.

EUR/USD calendar for 16–20 November (CET)

The week is packed with events that could move the euro-dollar rate. Times are CET (Madrid/Paris), converted from MUFG's calendar (US weekly jobless claims are released every Thursday at that time):

You can follow all of these events in our economic calendar and check which currency is strongest in real time with our currency strength meter.

EUR/USD forecast: scenarios for the week ahead

There is no way to know where the pair will go, but we can set out what would have to happen in each case:

1. Selling pressure continues: Warsh or Williams back a 50 bp hike, retail sales surprise to the upside and the minutes show a divided Fed leaning towards tighter policy. In that case, a daily close below 1.10 would put the 1.0950 zone cited by analysts to the test.
2. Range-bound stabilisation: data come in as expected, the December hike is already priced in and the pair trades between 1.0950 and 1.1130, the base-case range set out by NordFX.
3. Euro rebound: weak US consumer data, a more cautious speech from Warsh or a hawkish message from Lane would narrow the dollar's rate advantage. Reclaiming the 1.1090–1.1130 zone would be the first sign that the dollar has peaked.

What the euro's fall means for you

Here is how much less you now get when you exchange euros for dollars (our own calculation using Friday's close versus the 2026 high):

• If you travel or pay in dollars: each euro now gets you about $1.10, compared with more than $1.20 at the 2026 high. US purchases, subscriptions and trips cost almost 10% more than they did then (1.2067 / 1.1022 ≈ 1.095).
• If you hold unhedged US stocks or funds: the strong dollar adds to your returns when converted back into euros; when it turns, it will subtract from them.
• If you trade the pair: in weeks when CPI, the Fed and the ECB are driving the market, moves of 50–100 pips within minutes are common. With CFDs and leverage you can lose money faster than you expect, and the risk of slippage around data releases is high. Size your position to your stop, never the other way round.

Risks that could change the picture

• Oil: Brent fell to around $96 on Friday after settling above $113 in late October, according to TradingNEWS. If it keeps falling, inflation would ease on both sides of the Atlantic, but more so in Europe, where energy carries more weight in CPI.
• Japan: with USD/JPY at 160, intervention by the Bank of Japan could weaken the dollar more broadly. We covered this in USD/JPY at 160: will Japan intervene?
• France: the French risk premium was around 149 basis points over Germany in the latest readings compiled by TradingNEWS; renewed fiscal tension would weigh on the euro.
• A US jobs surprise: clear weakness in the labour market could hold the Fed back and give the euro some breathing room.

Frequently asked questions

What is the euro to dollar exchange rate today?

The currency market is closed on Sunday 15 November. The ECB's latest reference rate, from Friday 13 November, was $1.1052 per euro, and the pair ended the week around 1.1022 (NordFX), a 19-month low and its weakest level since April 2025.

Why is the dollar so strong?

Because US inflation keeps running above forecasts and markets are pricing in a Fed rate hike on 9 December, with the possibility of further hikes in 2027. US 10-year bonds yield around 190 basis points more than German Bunds.

What is the EUR/USD forecast for this week?

We do not publish our own price forecasts. Analyses published on 13 and 14 November put the base-case range between 1.0950 and 1.1130 (NordFX), with 1.10 as key support. The biggest potential drivers are Monday's speeches by Warsh and Williams, Tuesday's retail sales and Wednesday's Fed minutes.

Will the euro fall below 1.10?

Nobody can know for certain. The analysts cited here say a daily close below 1.10 would open the way to the 1.0950 zone, but weak US data or a more hawkish ECB could trigger a rebound. Keep an eye on this week's events before making any decisions.

When do the Fed and the ECB meet?

The Fed meets on 8–9 December 2026 and the ECB on 17 December. Markets are pricing a 25 basis point hike at both meetings, although some Fed officials are calling for 50.

Is now a good time to change euros into dollars?

We do not make buy or sell recommendations. What is a fact is that you now get fewer dollars per euro than at any point in the past 19 months. For information only, and not as a recommendation: some people who need foreign currency for a trip or a specific payment split the exchange across several dates so they are not dependent on a single day's rate.